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US sees ‘temporary' plastics trade surplus, report says

Port of Savannah, Georgia

Bulk bags of resin stored at the Port of Savannah in Georgia, ready for shipping in 2023. The port says it doubled resin exports in 2022.

The U.S. plastics industry returned to a trade surplus in 2023 but the change is likely to be temporary, with deficits returning through 2030, according to a new report from the Plastics Industry Association.

The association released its annual Global Trends report Oct. 16, with a headline on its website noting that the industry had returned to a trade surplus, with the news release saying the trade balance had turned to a positive $958 million after three years of deficits.

The association said the report detailed worldwide trade flows across different plastics industry sectors and countries.

"Plastics manufacturing is a global industry, and the over $1.5 trillion trade volume between countries in 2023, as highlighted in the Global Trends report, clearly demonstrates the industry's capacity to meet global consumer demand across various end markets, including health care, transportation, construction, and consumer goods," said Perc Pineda, the group's chief economist.

But the report's executive summary also said the return to a trade surplus for the U.S. industry was "likely temporary."

"The authors expect the plastics industry trade balance, which went positive in 2023, to revert to the negative range," the report said. "Their predicted deficits for the years 2024 and 2030 are in the $2 [billion] to $6 billion range."

It predicted that deficits would return as inventories are reduced and a manufacturing recovery increases demand for imports.

It said that shift showed up in the first six months of 2024, when a $1.2 billion surplus in the first half of 2023 became a small $81 million deficit in industry trade in the same period this year.

"As excess inventories were worked off, U.S. plastics industry trade started to normalize during the first six months of 2024," the report said. "A return to trade deficits seems likely."

It said exports grew 1.7 percent in the first half of 2024, while imports grew 5.1 percent.

The association's analysis noted that trade conditions in the industry's four main sectors are very different.

The resin sector had a $23.8 billion surplus in 2023, up 3 percent from the year before.

But the plastics products manufacturing sector continued its historical deficits with the world, at $19.2 billion in 2023. That, however, was an improvement from a $26.6 billion deficit in products in 2022.

It said mold makers had a $1.5 billion deficit last year, 0.1 percent less than the year before. And the machinery sector had a $2.1 billion deficit in 2023, down from $2.3 billion the year before.

Looked at another way, the report said U.S.-made resin had a 75 percent domestic market share and U.S. plastics products had an 82 percent share.

U.S. molds had 60 percent of the domestic market and for machinery, U.S. producers had a 48.8 percent market share.

* Source : https://www.plasticsnews.com/news/us-plastics-trade-shifts-surplus-deficits-will-return-report-says

* Edit : HANDLER